$11 Million Pot! Was Alex Foxen Right to Call the River All-In with a Flush vs Monarch?
Summary
Earlier this week at Triton Jeju II Alex Foxen and Ossi “Monarch” Ketola contested an $10,990,000 pot — the largest ever televised. Foxen held 8♦6♦ vs Monarch’s K♣J♥. Board: K♦ J♦ 8♣ — A♦ — K♠. Foxen turned a flush and called Monarch’s river jam, only to lose to a full house.
PokerNews ambassador Lukas Robinson ran the hand through GTO Wizard, nodelocking lines to mirror actual play. Key solver findings: pre-flop calling with 86s is slightly suboptimal versus a recommended 3-bet but similar EV; Monarch’s flop check with KJo is not optimal though common in practice; Foxen’s turn bet is fine; the river call with 8♦6♦ is marginally solver-approved — the EV difference between calling and folding is tiny (≈0.1). The solver favours the call only if you believe Monarch will bluff enough with trips/two-pair combos. In short: a brutal result for Foxen, but the solver shows the call was essentially the highest EV line given realistic bluff frequencies.
Key Points
- The hand produced a near-$11m pot — a record for televised poker.
- Pre-flop: Monarch opened BTN with KJo; Foxen defended BB with 8♦6♦. Solver prefers a 3-bet with 86s but calling is close in EV.
- Flop (K♦ J♦ 8♣): solver suggests BB should check; Monarch’s check with KJo is suboptimal versus a mixed-betting strategy that includes small bets and large overbets.
- Turn (A♦): Foxen’s bet (~82% pot) is acceptable; solver slightly prefers different sizing mixes but EV differences are small.
- River (K♠): Monarch jammed all-in with a full house; Foxen’s call with the eight-high flush is marginally GTO-approved — correct if opponent bluffs enough, otherwise folding is better.
- Nodelocking in the solver showed how realistic deviations (players checking strong hands, mixing sizes) change range interactions and the profitability of big calls.
- EV gap between call/fold on the river is negligible (~0.1) — highlights how tiny edges drive decisions at the highest stakes.
Context and Relevance
This is a modern GTO-focused breakdown of a historic high-stakes hand. It demonstrates how solvers and nodelocks are used to model real-game deviations and make marginal decisions understandable. For players trying to learn advanced range balancing, blocking effects and bet-sizing strategy, this is a concise case study of line selection under enormous pressure.
It also shows a cultural shift: top pros increasingly use solver tools not just to theorise but to justify big in-game decisions. If you study high-stakes cash games, understanding why a seemingly crazy call can be +EV is essential.
Why should I read this?
Quick answer: because it’s the biggest pot on TV and a neat lesson in “why the maths sometimes says call when your heart screams fold”. Lukas breaks the hand down with a solver, explains the tiny EV margins, and tells you what to actually think about — bluff frequency, blockers and sizing — so you don’t just copy the line, you understand the logic behind it. Short, sharp and useful if you play or study serious cash games.
