2025: Measuring A Very Volatile Year

Summary

This Chief Executive Research piece examines long-term patterns in the CEO Confidence Index and finds that anticipation of disruption usually exceeds the disruption that actually occurs — except during the Great Recession and in 2025. Data from 2002–2025 show CEOs historically forecast larger month-to-month swings than their real-time assessments recorded, but 2025 stands out: both forecasts and real-time measures have swung around -2.2% on average so far this year, a marked departure from prior norms.

Author

Melanie C. Nolen, head of research at Chief Executive Group — punchy, data-led and focused on what leaders need to know to make decisions under uncertainty.

Key Points

Historically, CEOs’ forecasts have tended to overstate month-to-month volatility versus actual, real-time changes.
From 2002–2025 the average forecasted month-over-month change was -1.1%, while actual recorded change averaged -0.3%.
2025 is an outlier: both forecasts and real-time assessments have averaged -2.2% month-to-month, matching only the Great Recession in severity.
Removing 2025 from the 2020–2025 window normalises volatility back to near-historical levels, showing this year is the driver of the period’s turbulence.
CEO confidence has averaged 5.3/10 in 2025 — the lowest since 2011–2012 — reflecting heightened concern among executives.

Content Summary

The article uses long-term CEO Confidence Index data to compare predicted versus realised business-condition swings. It finds that anticipation often overstates risk, potentially creating self-fulfilling pessimism, but notes that 2025 is a genuine exception where both forecasts and real-time measures show unusually large negative changes.

Comparisons to past inflection points (2003, 2008–09, 2010) show 2025’s movements are historically significant. The piece highlights how excluding 2025 normalises recent volatility metrics, underscoring that this year is the main contributor to elevated variability in the current half-decade.

Context and Relevance

For CEOs, board members and senior executives, the analysis matters because it separates noise from signal. If leaders recognise when fear is inflating forecasts, they can avoid over-reacting; conversely, understanding when volatility is real — as in 2025 — informs scenario planning, liquidity management and strategic pauses or accelerations.

This ties into broader trends: geopolitical conflict, persistent inflation, AI-driven disruption, tariff uncertainty and lingering pandemic effects. The article gives leaders a data-backed perspective on whether to act on forecasts or temper decisions based on actual conditions.

Why should I read this?

Want the short version? This cuts through the noise. It tells you whether to panic or plan. If you’re making budgets, hiring choices or M&A calls, knowing that 2025 actually looks different — not just scarier in people’s heads — is the kind of intel that changes decisions. Read it if you want a clear-headed take on whether the market swings are real or mostly hype.

Source

Source:https://chiefexecutive.net/2025-measuring-a-very-volatile-year/