Survey: Most Americans Equate Sports Predictions To Betting
Summary
A YouGov poll of 2,025 registered voters commissioned by the American Gaming Association finds a strong public view that sports prediction markets are essentially the same as sports betting. Major findings: 84% want prediction markets regulated the same as sports betting and 65% think state and tribal gaming regulators should oversee them. Around seven in 10 respondents believe prediction markets are exploiting a loophole to offer betting-like products, and 64% say operators and regulators must protect bettors and promote responsible gambling.
The story also notes growing industry activity: FanDuel struck a partnership with CME Group (not specifically for sports predictions), Underdog has launched sports predictions in 16 states, DraftKings is cautious about the product’s prospects where legal sports betting exists, and Kalshi posted very large sports trading volumes over a recent football weekend.
Key Points
- YouGov poll (n=2,025) for the American Gaming Association: 84% want prediction markets regulated like sports betting.
- 65% of respondents prefer regulation by state and tribal gaming authorities.
- About 70% believe prediction markets are using a loophole to offer betting without calling themselves sportsbooks.
- 64% say gambling operators and regulators have a responsibility to protect bettors and encourage responsible play.
- Industry moves: Underdog launched sports predictions in 16 states; FanDuel partnered with CME Group; DraftKings remains cautious; Kalshi saw hundreds of millions in sports trading volume on a football weekend.
Why should I read this?
Quick and blunt: if you care about where sports betting and prediction markets are heading — from regulation to who wins customers — this poll shows the public thinks they’re the same thing. It matters if you follow regulation, run a sportsbook, or want a clear take on whether prediction markets will get boxed in by gambling laws. We’ve dug out the big numbers so you don’t have to.
Context and relevance
Prediction markets have surged this year and are attracting established sports-betting brands. The poll signals likely political and regulatory pressure to treat prediction markets like sportsbooks, which could force product changes, licensing requirements or state-by-state legal fights. For operators, regulators and investors, the survey underlines the reputational and compliance risk of positioning prediction products outside traditional gambling frameworks. Kalshi’s trading spikes and Underdog’s state rollouts show consumer demand, but the public appetite for regulation could shape how quickly and where those products can expand.
