Product Tankers: Demand Could Be Ramping Up

Summary

Shipbroker Gibson’s latest weekly note points to a possible short-term respite for the product tanker market after refinery activity hit an all-time high of ~85 mbd over the summer. Strong refinery runs pushed seaborne clean petroleum product (CPP) exports to a 16-month high, led by the Middle East and big jet-fuel imports into Europe.

However, the outlook is mixed: around 3.5 mbd of refinery capacity is scheduled for maintenance through October, some regional refineries are closing under competitive and regulatory pressure, while non-OECD capacity (largely East of Suez and the Middle East) is expected to grow next year. Geopolitical risks — bans, sanctions and attacks on export infrastructure — could rapidly alter flows again.

Key Points

Global refining runs reached a record ~85 mbd, lifting seaborne CPP exports to a 16‑month high.
Middle East export volumes surged over the summer; Europe saw record jet fuel imports.
Planned refinery maintenance will take roughly 3.5 mbd offline through October, but runs are expected to rebound by year‑end.
Refinery closures and competitive pressures in Europe, the US and China are reshaping export patterns and volumes.
Non‑OECD throughput should grow next year (≈+1.0 mbd outside OECD), with a sizeable share from the Middle East.
Geopolitical developments — bans on Indian/Turkish refined products in Europe and attacks on Russian facilities — could upend global seaborne product trade.

Content Summary

Gibson highlights that refiners ran much harder over the summer than at any point since the pandemic, producing a temporary boost to product tanker cargo volumes. While that spike improved exports, structural headwinds remain: older refineries face higher regulatory costs and competition from new large facilities (e.g. Dangote, Olmeca). Several European and US plants have closed or face permanent shutdowns, though policy shifts may slow declines.

China is trimming capacity and pushing independents to rationalise, while domestic demand patterns (EV adoption) temper long‑term fuel growth. Overall, global refining throughput is still projected to rise by about 500,000 b/d next year, driven by non‑OECD expansion, but export volumes may be near a peak. The report emphasises that geopolitical shocks could change trade flows very quickly.

Context and Relevance

This piece matters to owners, charterers and brokers tracking product‑tanker demand and freight prospects. Short‑term maintenance schedules and summer run‑ups can create spot opportunities, but longer‑term structural shifts — refinery closures, regional capacity growth and geopolitics — will influence cargo patterns, voyage lengths and rate cycles. Expect volatility: transient volume spikes, then potential rebalancing as regional supply/demand evolves.

Author

Punchy: Gibson’s note flags a likely near‑term lift for product tankers driven by summer refinery activity, but warns that structural pressures and geopolitics keep the upside fragile. Read the detail if you trade, operate or invest in product tonnage — the timing of maintenance and regional flows matters.

Why should I read this

Quick and useful — if you care about tanker markets, this tells you why summer refinery runs gave a short boost and where the risk lies next (maintenance, refinery closures, and geopolitical shocks). We’ve done the reading for you: skim the key points and watch maintenance schedules and regional moves for trading opportunities.

Source

Source: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/product-tankers-demand-could-be-ramping-up/