CEOs Cut 2026 Outlook In September Poll As Economic Uncertainty Persists
Summary
Chief Executive’s September CEO Confidence Index shows falling optimism among U.S. CEOs as tariffs, trade uncertainty and Fed policy cloud planning. Current business conditions score 5.1/10 (near the year’s lows), while the 12-month outlook has slipped to 5.5/10 after stronger readings earlier in 2025. Nearly half of CEOs no longer expect improvement in the year ahead, recession odds have ticked up, and a large majority want deep interest-rate cuts from the Fed.
Key Points
- Current U.S. business conditions rated 5.1/10, flat from August and down from July and January.
- CEOs’ 12-month economic outlook fell to 5.5/10, marking a consecutive monthly decline.
- Only 46% expect economic conditions to improve in the coming year; 28% expect deterioration.
- 29% of CEOs now expect a recession within six months (up from 21% in July).
- 92% of CEOs want deep Fed rate cuts by year-end; nearly two-thirds seek at least 75 basis points.
- 65% anticipate revenue growth next year, but 57% expect to finish 2025 below their targets.
- Hiring plans are muted: 40% plan to add headcount; many cite labour costs and skills shortages.
- Capex plans are restrained (38% plan increases), though 53% say capital spending is on track to meet targets.
- Fewer CEOs report inflation-driven cost pressure than earlier in the year (66% expect rising opex vs 81% in April).
Content summary
CEOs who took part in Chief Executive’s September poll report a wake-up call after earlier optimism this year. Political and trade policy shifts — including evolving tariffs — are creating planning volatility, with leaders saying the environment changes every 30–60 days. That unpredictability is hitting demand in some sectors as customers manage inventory and delay purchases.
CEOs express concern that administration policy unpredictability could lead to stagflation. Still, a subset of firms with limited international exposure see potential gains if tariffs stabilise and tax/regulatory changes take effect. On the policy front, almost all CEOs told the poll they want substantial Fed rate cuts to restore momentum; they warn that without stimulus the economy could slip further, prompting restructuring, layoffs or delayed investment.
Operationally, many companies expect revenue and profit growth, but a majority also say they’ll miss 2025 targets. Hiring is cautious and capex subdued, though capital spending shows pockets of resilience. Overall, inflationary pressure appears to be easing compared with earlier in the year.
Context and relevance
This poll is a near-real-time barometer of executive sentiment and signals how policy and trade moves are filtering into boardroom decisions. For leaders, investors and advisors, the data highlight elevated downside risks to demand, tighter capex and hiring restraint — all of which affect planning, M&A appetite, pricing strategies and liquidity management. The strong preference for substantial Fed cuts also underscores how dependent market participants are on central-bank action to stabilise growth.
Why should I read this?
Quick version: CEOs are cooling off. If your planning, hiring or investment decisions hinge on demand staying strong, this poll is a heads-up — people are being cautious, tariffs are muddying forecasts, and most execs want the Bank (via the Fed) to step in with sizeable rate cuts. Read it to avoid being surprised.
Author (style)
Punchy: Melanie C. Nolen’s polling overview is straight to the point — this matters if you run strategy, treasury, HR or investor relations. The stats aren’t dramatic, but the trend is clear: confidence is sliding and that changes choices at the top.
