MAS economists expect Singapore’s GDP to expand by 2.4% in 2025
Summary
Economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) expect Singapore’s economy to grow by a median of 2.4% in 2025, up from the June survey’s 1.7% median. This follows the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s August upward revision of the official 2025 forecast to 1.5–2.5%.
The survey, conducted in August and published 3 September, drew responses from 20 of 25 professional forecasters. Respondents put the highest probability (36%) on growth landing between 2.0% and 2.4% in 2025. The distribution of forecasts has tightened slightly, with improvements more pronounced at the lower percentiles.
Quarterly performance showed stronger momentum: Q2 2025 GDP grew 4.4% year‑on‑year, above earlier expectations. Forecasters expect Q3 2025 to expand by about 0.9% y/y. For 2026, the median forecast is 1.9%, with the distribution turning slightly negatively skewed and downside risks noted.
Key Points
- MAS survey median forecast for 2025 GDP is 2.4%, up from 1.7% in June.
- Respondents assign a 36% probability to GDP growth of 2.0–2.4% in 2025.
- MTI had revised the official 2025 growth range to 1.5–2.5% in August; the MAS survey is consistent with the upper half of that range.
- Q2 2025 GDP rose 4.4% y/y, stronger than previous median expectations; Q3 2025 is forecast at +0.9% y/y.
- Median forecast for 2026 is 1.9%; the distribution is slightly negatively skewed, signalling persistent downside risks.
- Survey methodology: 25 economists were polled (sent 12 Aug); 20 responded (80%). The survey reflects respondents’ views and is not MAS’s own forecast.
Why should I read this?
Short answer: if you hire, plan budgets, set compensation or watch markets in Singapore, this matters. MAS forecasters have nudged 2025 growth expectations up — Q2 was stronger than expected — but downside risks remain. It’s a quick take on whether demand and the jobs market might be firmer (or wobblier) than you planned.
Context and relevance
This update influences monetary and fiscal outlooks, corporate hiring plans and compensation cycles. A higher median growth forecast suggests a firmer near‑term environment for labour demand and business activity, but the negative skew and noted downside risks mean firms should keep contingency plans. The results also reflect global headwinds and supply‑side considerations that can affect Singapore’s trade‑dependent economy.
