Macau gaming rally expected to continue into October’s Golden Week
Summary
Macau’s casino sector is showing strong momentum entering autumn. Jefferies reports Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) hit MOP163.1 billion (US$20.3bn) in the first eight months of 2025, and 1–7 September GGR was up about 10% year‑on‑year. Jefferies now expects Q3 growth of 13.8%, Q4 growth of 15.3% and a 2025 gain of 9.5%, revising its full‑year forecast to MOP248bn from MOP237bn.
Citigroup concurs that big entertainment events and high‑value customers are lifting volumes. It points to headline acts (Jacky Cheung, Eason Chan) and upcoming events such as the NBA China Games (10–12 October) and Jackson Wang concerts (11–12 October) as demand drivers. Citigroup has raised its 2025 GGR forecast to MOP248.6bn and its 2026 forecast to MOP265.5bn, and suggests October could be stronger than its MOP23bn estimate if events perform well. Analysts also note that growing popularity of baccarat side bets is improving casino hold rates, especially in premium‑mass tables.
Key Points
- Macau GGR for Jan–Aug 2025 reached MOP163.1bn (US$20.3bn).
- Early September (1–7) GGR rose ~10% year‑on‑year, per Jefferies.
- Jefferies forecasts: Q3 +13.8%, Q4 +15.3%, full‑year 2025 +9.5%; full‑year estimate raised to MOP248bn.
- Citigroup raised its 2025 GGR view to MOP248.6bn and 2026 to MOP265.5bn, citing entertainment line‑ups and premium‑mass demand.
- Major events (concerts, NBA China Games) around Golden Week and in October are expected to lift visitor spending and gaming volumes.
- Baccarat side bets are increasing casino hold rates, supporting operator revenues.
Why should I read this?
Short version: if you watch Macau numbers, this is where the action is heading into Golden Week. Big acts, premium players and smarter side‑bets are combining to lift revenue and forecasts — so whether you’re tracking operators, investors or suppliers, this compact update tells you why markets might keep running.
Author style
Punchy: the piece cuts to the chase with clear figures and named catalysts. If you care about casino earnings or regional tourism rebounds, read the detail — the upgrades matter for valuations and near‑term trading around Golden Week.
Context and relevance
This coverage matters because it highlights a broader post‑pandemic rebound in travel and high‑value discretionary spending in Greater China. Operators are staging headline entertainment and leveraging product tweaks (eg baccarat side bets) to lift hold and attract wealthier visitors. Upward forecast revisions from major banks signal confidence and could influence investor sentiment, share prices and operator strategies during the crucial Golden Week and October events window.
Source
Source: https://igamingbusiness.com/finance/macau-rally-expected-continue-into-october-golden-week/
