Marina Bay Sands abandons standard hold calculations on rolling baccarat as theoretical rates hit new heights
Summary
Las Vegas Sands has changed how it calculates expected hold on rolling baccarat at Marina Bay Sands (MBS) after smart-table data showed theoretical rates reaching 4.2% in 3Q25. The company reported a steady climb in expected hold over the past year — from 3.5% in 3Q24 to 4.2% in 3Q25 — and will now publish quarter-specific expected hold rather than using a single standard percentage.
The shift is possible because MBS has rolled out Angel Group’s hybrid smart-table system (RFID chip tracking combined with AI tabletop cameras), which provides detailed insight into the mix of bets and chip movements. LVS said the approach better reflects real-time player behaviour and could be extended to its Macau properties as data collection there improves. Industry context: baccarat side bets now make up a significant share of revenues, and smart tables are enabling operators to measure and optimise that mix.
Key Points
- Expected hold on rolling baccarat rose from 3.5% (3Q24) to 4.2% (3Q25), per LVS disclosures.
- Smart tables (Angel Group’s RFID + AI cameras) let operators capture exact bet mixes and calculate quarterly theoretical hold.
- MBS will report expected hold for each quarter instead of applying a single standard hold percentage.
- LVS intends to move the same methodology to Macau as smart-table data collection scales there.
- Baccarat side bets now account for a large portion of revenues in the region — smart-table data has made expansion of side-bet offerings feasible.
- Practical implications include more accurate revenue measurement, the ability to tweak game and side-bet offerings, and potential impacts on investor and regulatory expectations.
Why should I read this
Short and blunt: if you follow casino margins, gaming tech or invest in Asia gaming, this is a proper shift. Smart tables are letting operators stop guessing and start measuring — which changes how revenue is reported and how games are designed. We skimmed the numbers and takeaways so you don’t have to.
Context and Relevance
This matters because it signals an industry-wide move from estimated, static metrics to dynamic, data-driven reporting. Operators who adopt smart-table telemetry can fine-tune side bets and layouts to lift theoretical hold and overall revenue. For investors, quarterly reported theoretical hold becomes a more direct indicator of product mix and profitability rather than an artefact of an assumed percentage.
For regulators and market-watchers, the change raises questions about transparency and consistency of reported metrics across jurisdictions — particularly as Macau catches up with Singapore in smart-table adoption. For players, a heavier side-bet mix can mean a more varied experience but also different expected returns.
