New York’s New Bill Targets Prediction Markets with Strict Restrictions
Summary
New York Assembly Bill 9251, dubbed the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events (ORACLE) Act, seeks to tightly regulate prediction markets operating in the state. The bill forbids New York users from taking speculative positions on a list of sensitive categories (catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities and athletic events) and restricts collaboration with liquidity providers or other entities that “knowingly engage in gaming” as part of their routine business.
The measure imposes hefty penalties for non-compliance: civil fines up to $10,000 for single infractions, up to $50,000 for repeat violations, and potential injunctions and daily fines (up to $1 million per day) enforced by the attorney general. The ORACLE Act also mandates consumer-protection requirements (minimum age 21, self-exclusion, display of the HOPE NY hotline), transparency in outcome sources, prohibitions on relying on proprietary or confidential data for settlements, and strict advertising limits (no targeting under-21s, ban on “risk-free” claims, and restrictions on push notifications).
The bill is with the General Assembly’s Standing Committee on Consumer Affairs and Protection. Industry players such as Kalshi are already in legal conflict with New York regulators, indicating further litigation and regulatory friction ahead.
Key Points
- AB 9251 (ORACLE Act) creates explicit limits and definitions for prediction markets in New York.
- It bars New York users from betting on certain categories: catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities and athletic events.
- Providers may not partner with liquidity providers or entities that knowingly operate as gambling businesses.
- Penalties are steep: up to $10,000 for single violations, $50,000 for repeated breaches, and potential injunctions plus fines up to $1m per day.
- Consumer protections required: minimum age 21, self-exclusion tools and mandatory display of the HOPE NY gambling hotline.
- Transparency and advertising rules: disclose outcome sources, no reliance on proprietary data for settlements, no marketing to under-21s and bans on terms like “risk-free”.
- The bill is under committee review; enforcement would fall to the attorney general and is likely to spur legal challenges from market operators.
Context and Relevance
This bill sits within a broader wave of state-level efforts to define and control prediction markets, which straddle the line between financial instruments and gambling. Regulators are increasingly concerned about consumer harm, market integrity and the potential for overlap with traditional gambling operators.
For operators, the ORACLE Act would meaningfully raise compliance costs, restrict product offerings in New York and could set a precedent other states follow. For investors, legal teams and policy watchers, the measure signals heightened scrutiny and the likelihood of litigation as companies test the boundaries of permitted activity.
Author style
Punchy: this isn’t a dusty policy note—it’s a concrete attempt to box prediction markets in. If you’re involved in platform operations, legal affairs or investment decisions tied to speculative digital markets, the detail matters. The bill could reshape market access in one of the largest U.S. jurisdictions and prompt a new round of regulatory-first strategies.
Why should I read this?
Short and blunt: if you care about prediction markets, gambling regulation or where tech meets law, don’t skip this. New York’s rules could stop certain contract types cold, slap operators with big fines and force platforms to rethink partnerships and ads. It’s the kind of regulatory move that makes businesses pivot fast—so get the gist now and save yourself a headache later.
