New events, fresh supply and rising wealth to drive Macau GGR to $30.7B in 2025: Jefferies
Summary
Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei forecast Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach MOP246 billion (around $30.7 billion) in 2025, beating the Macau government’s MOP228 billion estimate. The upgrade is driven by a stronger events calendar, new hotel and entertainment supply (notably Galaxy Phase 4 and other resort expansions), broadened incentive programmes targeting premium mass and VIP players, and a positive wealth effect from recovering equity and crypto markets. October posted MOP24 billion GGR — the best monthly result since reopening — and Jefferies has lifted its 4Q25 forecast to MOP67.9 billion, underpinning the full-year projection. The brokerage leaves 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts at 6% and 3% respectively.
Key Points
- Jefferies projects Macau GGR of MOP246 billion ($30.7bn) for 2025, above the government’s MOP228 billion estimate.
- Strong October performance (MOP24bn) and solid early-November daily averages signal improving liquidity and visitor spending.
- Major integrated resorts are staging dozens of concerts, shows and sports events, boosting visitation and incremental gaming spend.
- New supply — including Galaxy Phase 4 and other property upgrades — is expected to attract higher-value customers during peak periods.
- Operators are expanding incentive programmes in premium mass and VIP tiers to compete in an experience-driven market.
- Stock market recovery, private equity activity and revived IPO pipelines are creating a ‘wealth effect’ that supports higher gaming demand.
- Jefferies raised its 4Q25 GGR forecast to MOP67.9bn (up ~13% YoY) and keeps 2026/27 growth at 6% and 3% respectively.
Content summary
Jefferies’ research highlights a multi‑pronged recovery in Macau: entertainment-led visitation, fresh room and venue capacity, and targeted player incentives. The firm sees the rebound concentrated in premium mass and VIP segments where operators are both offering more incentives and benefiting from rising client wealth driven by equity and crypto market improvements.
The analysts point to an active events pipeline — concerts, shows and sports across Galaxy Macau, The Venetian, Londoner Arena and other resorts — many already sold out, which should lift footfall and spend into late 2025 and early 2026. Combined with new hotel inventory and renovations, these factors support stronger seasonal and full‑year GGR than earlier expected.
Context and relevance
This forecast matters to casino operators, investors and suppliers because it signals a stronger demand environment and potential margin tailwinds. For investors, a revised higher GGR outlook can influence valuations, dividend expectations and capital allocation plans. For operators and vendors, the trend underlines the importance of event programming, premium customer acquisition strategies and capacity planning ahead of peak travel periods.
Macro links — namely equity market rallies, private equity deals and IPO activity — suggest gaming demand is being buoyed by wealth creation beyond tourism policy alone. That makes this more than a short‑term bounce; it points to structural upside in higher‑value segments if markets remain supportive.
Why should I read this?
Quick and useful: Jefferies is saying Macau’s comeback is stronger than official forecasts — driven by events, new hotels and richer punters. If you care about casino profits, resort bookings, or market moves in Asian gaming stocks, this piece gives the key reasons why numbers are being revised up and where the upside is landing.
