Flutter cuts profit forecast to $2.9B amid unfavourable sporting results, announces Nevada exit
Summary
Flutter Entertainment has downgraded its 2025 core profit forecast to $2.9 billion from $3.3 billion after an extended run of customer-friendly sporting outcomes increased payouts. The group reported third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $478 million, a 6% rise year-on-year and above consensus, but its full-year guidance now falls short of analyst expectations.
Separately, FanDuel (Flutter’s U.S. arm) and DraftKings have agreed to relinquish or withdraw their Nevada licensing efforts as both shift focus to rolling out national prediction markets. Flutter will launch FanDuel Predicts next month in partnership with CME Group; the business will require substantial investment, which the company says will reduce profits materially in Q4 and in 2026.
Key Points
- Flutter cut full-year core profit guidance from $3.3bn to $2.9bn, blaming a long run of favourable outcomes for customers that increased payouts.
- Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $478m, up 6% year-on-year and above the $459m consensus.
- FanDuel and DraftKings will abandon or withdraw Nevada licence efforts after regulators found prediction markets incompatible with Nevada’s gaming framework.
- Flutter will launch FanDuel Predicts with CME Group to offer event contracts across sports, entertainment, politics and finance; investment to scale will reduce profits by $40–50m in Q4 and $200–300m next year.
- Sports-related event contracts will be offered only in states where online sports betting is illegal, and Flutter views prediction markets as a significant growth opportunity that could accelerate sports-betting legalisation.
- DraftKings is building its own national prediction markets product (acquiring Railbird and applying to the National Futures Association); its Las Vegas office is expected to remain unaffected.
- CEO Peter Jackson said Flutter remains confident in its odds-setting despite the unfavourable run of results.
Why should I read this?
Quick and dirty: Flutter’s trimming profit guidance and pivoting hard into prediction markets — and that pivot just cost them Nevada. If you follow gambling, regulation or market shifts in the US, this explains why big operators are changing strategy right now and what that means for competition and state regulation.
Context and relevance
Why it matters: Flutter is the world’s largest online betting group; a profit downgrade signals material short-term margin pressure in the industry and shows how variance in sporting results can hit operator economics. The move into prediction markets — backed by CME Group — represents a strategic bet on a new product category that could reshape regulatory debates and open up new revenue streams, especially in states that have not legalised sports betting.
For industry watchers: this story ties into broader trends — regulation of prediction markets, ongoing legal uncertainty across US states, and competition between dominant operators (FanDuel, DraftKings) as they seek national-scale products. Regulators in Nevada signalling incompatibility may prompt firms to pursue federal or alternative-state routes instead.
