Macau GGR seen rising 16% in 4Q25 as momentum extends into 2026 – Morgan Stanley | Yogonet International
Summary
Morgan Stanley expects Macau gross gaming revenue (GGR) to rise 16% year‑on‑year in 4Q25, driven by sustained post‑pandemic recovery and resilient visitor flows. The bank says growth should remain above 10% through April 2026 but notes there is “no margin expansion” alongside the revenue gains.
Analysts highlighted a potential upside: consensus forecasts imply about 9% EBITDA growth in 4Q25, well below the 16% GGR projection, suggesting operators may beat current earnings expectations. November gaming results are also expected near 16% year‑on‑year, extending momentum after Golden Week.
Morgan Stanley called out MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment as well positioned for late 2025: MGM China gained 100 basis points of GGR share in October and saw >10% growth in its top customer segment after launching the Alpha Gaming Club; Galaxy should see EBITDA improvements as one‑off pre‑opening marketing costs roll off.
On the public finance side, Macau’s 2026 budget projects casinos could generate MOP236 billion (USD 29.28 billion) in GGR next year. The government trimmed its 2025 forecast from MOP240 billion to MOP228 billion and described the economy as facing “significant headwinds.” The 2026 budget expects MOP118.8 billion in revenue, MOP113.5 billion in expenditure and a MOP5.3 billion surplus, with planned PIDDA investments of over MOP18.08 billion.
Key Points
- Morgan Stanley forecasts 16% YoY GGR growth for Macau in 4Q25 and expects growth >10% through April 2026.
- Consensus EBITDA forecasts (~9% in 4Q25) lag GGR expectations, implying possible upside to operator earnings.
- November GGR likely around 16% YoY, continuing post‑Golden Week strength.
- MGM China and Galaxy Entertainment singled out as likely beneficiaries; MGM gained market share in October and launched Alpha Gaming Club.
- Macau’s 2026 public budget projects MOP236 billion (USD 29.28bn) in casino GGR; 2025 forecast was revised down to MOP228 billion.
- Government highlights economic headwinds but plans housing relief (stamp duty exemption raised to MOP6m) and PIDDA investments for infrastructure and tech.
Context and Relevance
This update matters for investors, operators and suppliers tied to Macau’s recovery. Stronger‑than‑expected GGR can lift operator revenues and share prices, while the gap between GGR and consensus EBITDA points to potential earnings upgrades. The public budget numbers and policy moves (housing duty changes, PIDDA spending) show the government is balancing fiscal support with caution amid external pressures.
For industry watchers, the note underscores continued demand recovery in high‑end segments and the importance of cost dynamics (one‑offs versus sustainable margins) when modelling operator profitability in 2026.
Why should I read this
Short and sharp: if you follow Macau, gaming stocks or regional tourism, this is worth a skim. Morgan Stanley is flagging stronger revenue momentum than the market expects — that could mean upside to earnings and stock moves for the big operators. Plus, the government budget gives a useful steer on policy and spending plans heading into 2026. We read it so you don’t have to.
