Betting and Gaming Council says black market will double in size due to new tax levels – G3 Newswire
Summary
The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) warns that the UK Government’s recent betting and gaming tax rises will shrink the regulated sector, drive customers to illegal operators and fail to deliver the projected revenue gains. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and industry modelling (including EY) predict a significant fall in projected tax yield, with an estimated move of billions of pounds in stakes to the black market and thousands of jobs at risk.
The Budget increases mean Remote Gaming Duty rises from 21% to 40% in 2026 and sports betting duty from 15% to 25% in 2027. The BGC says these hikes could cost nearly 17,000 jobs, lead to about 500 betting shop closures, and push over £6bn of stakes into unregulated markets, while providing less consumer protection and lower long-term tax receipts.
Key Points
- OBR and industry analysis suggest the tax changes will reduce projected yield by around one-third, including about £500m lost by 2029-30.
- Remote Gaming Duty rising to 40% and sports betting duty to 25% will be largely passed on to consumers via worse prices or lower payouts.
- BGC and EY modelling estimate nearly 17,000 high-tech and other industry jobs at risk across online betting and gaming.
- More than £6bn in stakes could migrate to the black market — a projected 140% increase in illegal activity.
- Racing is only cosmetically protected; reduced operator revenue still threatens sponsorship, media rights funding and the levy.
- International precedents (eg the Netherlands) show higher tax rates can lower tax take and boost illegal play.
Context and relevance
The story matters to anyone in the betting, gaming, horse racing and wider sports funding ecosystem. The government expects an extra £1.1bn a year by 2029, but both independent analysts and the Treasury’s own OBR model point to weaker yields and unintended consequences. If consumers shift to unregulated providers, the result is less tax revenue, fewer consumer protections, and reduced funding for sport and local economies. The piece ties into wider European experience showing heavy taxation can backfire and expand the illegal market.
Author style
Punchy: the article is framed as an urgent industry alarm — big numbers, job losses and market distortion. If you work in betting, racing, sports financing or regulation, this is a near-term policy change worth digging into because the downstream effects are concrete and sizeable.
Why should I read this?
Short version: if you care about jobs, racing funding or safer gambling, this explains why the Chancellor’s tax plan could wreck the regulated market and hand a windfall to illegal operators. We’ve done the wading through the modelling and headlines — read this to get the key figures and what they mean fast.
Source
Source: https://g3newswire.com/betting-gaming-council-black-market-new-tax/
