Betting and Gaming Council warns further tax increase will devastate UK betting industry
Summary
The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has warned that proposed further tax rises on betting and gaming would cause serious harm to the UK industry, according to independent analysis by EY commissioned by the BGC.
The EY study says the plans advocated by think tanks SMF and IPPR could risk over 40,000 jobs, push £8.4bn of stakes into the gambling black market, and cut around £3.1bn from the sector’s economic contribution. The analysis also finds the short-term tax take would be much smaller than projected — roughly just over £1bn, with the Treasury’s net gain possibly falling below £500m after accounting for wider economic losses.
BGC members currently contribute about £6.8bn to the UK economy, pay £4bn in tax and support more than 109,000 jobs, including high-skilled roles in cities such as Stoke-on-Trent, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Sunderland and Warrington.
The think tanks propose large rises — in some cases doubling duties — including Remote Betting Duty up to 50% for online gaming and General Betting Duty up to 25% for sports betting. EY modelling says these hikes would shrink the regulated market, worsen odds and offers for punters, and encourage migration to an unregulated black market.
Grainne Hurst, Chief Executive of the BGC, warned the measures would lead to shop and venue closures, lost jobs and weakened consumer protections. Industry voices including Betfred and Entain have also warned that further tax increases could force retail closures and raise illegal gambling.
Key Points
- EY analysis (commissioned by the BGC) predicts over 40,000 jobs at risk under some proposed tax plans.
- Between £8.1bn and £8.4bn of stakes could move to the black market, according to the modelling.
- Sector economic contribution could fall by around £2.5bn–£3.1bn depending on the proposal.
- Think tanks (SMF and IPPR) propose large duty increases: up to 50% for online gaming and 25% for sports betting.
- Current tax rates include 21% for online bingo, 15% for sports betting and 20% for machine gaming.
- EY says short-term revenue would be closer to just over £1bn versus the IPPR claim of £3.2bn; net Treasury gain may be under £500m after wider effects.
- Retail impact: warnings that thousands of betting shops could close (Betfred flagged 1,300 shops and ~7,000 jobs at risk).
Content Summary
The article reports on EY’s independent analysis for the Betting and Gaming Council, which models the economic and market impacts of significant duty increases recommended by the SMF and IPPR think tanks. EY finds the proposed hikes would substantially damage the regulated sector, trigger job losses, and push substantial amounts of betting activity into the unregulated black market. The study also challenges the revenue estimates put forward by the think tanks, showing far lower short-term returns and potentially a negligible net fiscal gain once job losses and lower business tax receipts are included.
The BGC argues this combination of higher taxes and recent regulatory changes (including the 2023 Gambling Act Review White Paper) risks dismantling a globally competitive, tightly regulated industry that supports jobs and funds sport. Industry leaders and operators have echoed warnings about shop closures and increased illegal gambling.
Context and Relevance
This matters for policymakers, local economies and anyone with an interest in UK high streets, sport funding and regulated gambling. The story sits at the intersection of tax policy, regulation and consumer protection: higher duties are intended to raise revenue and curb harms, but the analysis suggests they may instead shrink the regulated market, reduce jobs and protections, and enlarge the black market — with limited fiscal benefit.
For industry stakeholders and MPs, the piece highlights the trade-offs of aggressive tax reform and the importance of using robust economic modelling when assessing policy impacts. It also links to ongoing trends: post-2023 Gambling Act reform, squeezed retail operators, and growing concern about unregulated gambling channels.
Why should I read this?
Short version: if you care about jobs on Britain’s high streets, the future of regulated gambling or where extra tax cash will actually come from — this is worth five minutes. The article pulls together new EY numbers that punch holes in the headline claims from the think tanks and shows how big tax hikes could backfire badly.
