If the US Has to Build Data Centres, Here’s Where They Should Go
Summary
A new analysis published in Nature Communications models the likely environmental footprint of the coming AI-driven data-centre buildout in the US and finds current development patterns are often the worst places to locate large facilities. The study combines AI chip demand forecasts with state-level electricity mixes and water-scarcity data to identify where future centres would cause the least harm. Texas, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota emerge as the most favourable states because they balance lower water stress with cleaner grid potential.
The paper warns that if demand for AI outpaces gains in efficiency and the grid does not decarbonise rapidly, the expansion could add tens of millions of tonnes of CO2e annually. Conversely, better siting, improved cooling and cleaner power could materially reduce both emissions and water use. The authors stress transparency on emissions and early planning to avoid locking in high environmental costs.
Key Points
- The study models multiple scenarios to project the environmental impacts of new AI-focused data-centre buildouts through the end of the decade.
- State electricity mix and water availability strongly influence a data centre’s carbon and water footprint.
- Texas, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota are identified as optimal candidates for future AI server installations.
- Historic hotspots (Virginia, Northern California, Arizona) remain popular despite risks: Virginia’s grid goals could be undermined and California and Arizona face water stress.
- In a worst-case scenario, the US buildout could add up to ~44 million tonnes CO2e per year—comparable to emissions of some medium-sized countries.
- Technological advances (cooling, on-site energy, nuclear) and a faster grid transition could substantially reduce projected harms.
- The paper cautions that many uncertainties remain: efficiency gains, tech improvements, and political energy policy choices will change outcomes.
Why should I read this?
Short version: if you care about climate, water or where the tech industry plants its massive server farms, this matters. The study shows we’re not necessarily putting data centres where they’ll do the least damage — and that choice will lock in emissions and water use for years. I skimmed the wonk so you don’t have to: read the piece to see which states are safer bets and why planning now could save a lot of environmental headache later.
Source
Source: https://www.wired.com/story/heres-where-to-build-data-centers-to-keep-emissions-down/
