KSA report says gambling tax hike poses risk to player protection
Summary
Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) warns that the recent rise in the gambling tax is undermining player protection and driving business choices that could push players to the unlicensed market. The tax rate went from 30.5% of gross gaming revenue (GGR) to 34.2% on 1 January 2025 and is set to increase again to 37.8% in 2026. The KSA’s impact assessment finds 2025 tax receipts will be roughly €40m (about 5%) lower than 2024, despite the government aiming to raise significantly more.
Key Points
- • The tax rate rose from 30.5% to 34.2% on 1 January 2025 and will reach 37.8% in 2026.
- • KSA estimates 2025 gambling tax receipts will be around €40m (5%) lower than in 2024, short of government targets.
- • Online GGR was 8% lower in Q1 2025 versus Q4 2024; Q2 remained roughly flat. After tax, online operators have 12% less to cover costs.
- • Land-based GGR fell 4% in Q1 2025 versus Q4 2024; operators are left with 10% less after tax and venue numbers dropped 9% in Q1.
- • Profitability example: an operator earning €1m GGR would have made €36,450 under the old rate, €6,480 under the current rate and would face a €28,000 loss at the 2026 rate.
- • The KSA warns that operator responses — lower payouts, fewer bonuses, reduced marketing or market exits — risk boosting the illegal market.
- • Legal platforms accounted for 51% of GGR in Jan–Apr 2025, and channelisation may fall further if offerings are reduced; 91% of players used legal sites exclusively in Q1 2025 by account share.
- • Stricter player-protection measures (deposit caps of €700 monthly, and €300 for 18–25s from Oct 2024) have also contributed to lower GGR and changed channelisation dynamics.
- • Trade body Brancheorganisatie VAN Kansspelen labelled the tax rise “doubly unwise”, calling it ineffective and counterproductive for both budget and policy goals.
Context and relevance
The report matters for regulators, operators and policymakers across Europe who are balancing public-protection measures with market viability. It shows how fiscal policy can have unintended consequences on player protection and channelisation: high taxes plus tighter consumer limits squeeze licensed operators, potentially pushing higher-value players to illegal operators where protections are weaker. The KSA’s numbers give a concrete view of how tax and regulatory design interact with market behaviour and channel shift.
Why should I read this?
Short version: if you care about whether regulation actually protects players — not just looks tough on paper — this is worth five minutes. The KSA’s data shows the tax hike may backfire, hollowing out licensed operators and nudging players to the black market. We’ve done the number-crunching for you, so you can spot the real risks without wading through the full report.