Macau gaming revenue hits post-2019 high as high-end play fuels growth: Seaport
Summary
Macau’s October gross gaming revenue (GGR) rose 15.9% year‑on‑year to MOP24.09 billion (about $3 billion), the highest monthly GGR since 2019 and roughly 91% of October 2019 levels, according to Seaport Research Partners.
Premium mass and VIP segments drove the outperformance, offsetting a softer Golden Week. Seaport flagged favourable VIP hold rates and continued liquidity as supporting factors. The report notes a structural shift toward wealthier mainland Chinese visitors (notably from Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang) and an improving mid‑tier segment while base mass recovery remains uneven.
Key Points
- October GGR: up 15.9% YoY to MOP24.09bn (~$3bn) — highest monthly level since 2019 and ~91% of Oct 2019.
- Growth driver: premium mass and VIP play outperformed; favourable VIP hold rates and system liquidity helped performance.
- Visitor mix: wealthier mainland Chinese tourists are increasingly important; premium mass now >118% of 2019 levels, VIP ~30% recovered.
- Forecasts: Seaport projects November GGR +11.5% YoY, Q4 growth +14.4%, and 2025 GGR +9.2% (USD). Estimated annual gains ~7% in 2026–27.
- Valuations: sector trades at forward EV/EBITDA ~9.3x — a 22% discount to 2018–19 pre‑COVID average, which Seaport regards as overly pessimistic.
- Top picks: Seaport favours Wynn Macau, Wynn Resorts, Melco Resorts and Las Vegas Sands as beneficiaries of premium segment expansion.
Context and relevance
This result matters because it signals a stronger post‑pandemic recovery driven by high‑end spenders rather than a broad base mass rebound. For investors and operators, the combination of solid operating recovery and what Seaport describes as depressed valuations creates potential opportunities — especially for plays exposed to premium mass and VIP revenue. The outlook links to broader trends: rising Chinese household wealth, easing travel/visa policies and continued product innovation (digital tables, side bets) that can lift margins.
Author’s take (punchy)
Big rebound, simple message: the money’s back in Macau — and it’s coming from the high end. If you follow gaming markets or China exposure, these numbers matter. Seaport thinks the market’s too gloomy on valuations; that’s a headline investors shouldn’t ignore.
Why should I read this?
Quick and blunt: Macau just posted its best monthly GGR since 2019 thanks to wealthy players, and forecasts show more growth. If you want to spot investment or operational shifts in Asia’s gaming scene without wading through full reports, this is the skinny — saves you time and tells you where the real money is.
