Macau GGR momentum builds as analysts forecast 15% growth for December | AGB
Summary
Analysts say Macau is heading into December with strong momentum after November’s better-than-expected gross gaming revenue (GGR) performance. CLSA reported November GGR rose 14.4% year-on-year to MOP21.1 billion, with a late-month acceleration linked to the wrap-up of the 2025 National Games and healthier visitation.
CLSA forecasts December GGR to climb about 15% year-on-year to MOP20.9 billion, citing a favourable low base from December 2024. J.P. Morgan is even more optimistic, suggesting December could exceed 20% year-on-year growth if the current trend continues. Year-to-date GGR is up 8.6% but remains around 16% below 2019 levels. The recovery is being led by the mass market, now above pre-pandemic levels, while VIP remains well below 2019 volumes.
Key Points
- November GGR rose 14.4% YoY to MOP21.1 billion, beating forecasts and Bloomberg consensus by ~3–4%.
- CLSA forecasts December GGR to increase ~15% YoY to MOP20.9 billion (average daily MOP674m), helped by a low 2024 base.
- Late-November momentum was likely supported by the conclusion of the 2025 National Games and stronger visitation.
- Year-to-date GGR is up 8.6% to MOP226.5 billion, but still about 16% below the same period in 2019.
- Mass-market GGR has surpassed pre-pandemic levels (J.P. Morgan: >125% of 2019); VIP remains roughly one-third of 2019 volumes.
- J.P. Morgan suggests December could top 20% YoY, potentially delivering a Q4 that is the strongest in six years (Q4 GGR +15–16% YoY).
- CLSA names Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China as top sector picks given their premium-mass exposure and fundamentals.
Why should I read this?
Quick and dirty: Macau’s rolling again. If you care about casino stocks, tourism flows or regional gaming trends, this is the signal that December might lift revenues and investor sentiment — fast. It’s a handy snapshot if you want to know whether the recovery is holding into the holiday peak.
Author’s take
Punchy: This isn’t just a one-month blip. Two months in a row of beats and bullish forecasts from big brokers means the market is getting real visibility — and that matters for operators, investors and suppliers heading into 2026.
Context and relevance
Why it matters: Macau is the world’s largest casino market and a strong December would confirm the post-COVID recovery is broadening beyond high-roller volumes into the mass segment. That shift affects operator earnings, capital allocation, stock performance and regional tourism supply chains.
Who should watch: investors in Macau-listed operators (Galaxy, MGM China, Sands China, Wynn etc.), gaming suppliers, travel and hospitality companies, and analysts tracking Asia Pacific leisure demand. The potential upside in December could also influence Q4 guidance and 2026 outlooks across the sector.