Macau gov’t forecasts full tourism volume recovery in 2025, long-term growth to 2030
Summary
Macau’s tourism authority (MGTO) projects a near-full rebound in visitor numbers for 2025, and steady growth through 2030. Arrivals reached 34.9 million in 2024 (88.6% of 2019 levels). MGTO forecasts 38.95 million visitors in 2025 and a range of 39.5–46.4 million by 2030.
Overnight stays — a key driver of non-gaming spending — are expected to rise from 16.0 million in 2024 to 16.4 million in 2025, potentially reaching 21.9 million by 2030. Average length of stay is forecast to climb slightly from 2.3 days (2025) to 2.5 days by 2030.
Per-visitor spending is projected at MOP2,194 (around $272) in 2025, with total non-gaming receipts hitting MOP85.5 billion ($10.6bn). By 2030 per-capita spending could reach MOP3,229 ($402), pushing non-gaming receipts above MOP110 billion ($13.7bn). Hotel rooms are set to expand from 48,333 (2024) to >49,000 in 2025 and potentially >52,000 by 2030, with occupancy peaking at 92.8% in 2025.
The report highlights heavy reliance on the Greater China market (93%+ of visitors in 2024) as a vulnerability, and sets a target of 3 million overseas visitors in 2025. MGTO aims to diversify through a “Tourism+” approach (gastronomy, heritage, health & wellness, sports, education), plus sustainability and tech (AI trip planning, low-carbon travel). The review also notes regional competition from integrated resorts in Japan and Southeast Asia and stresses deeper Greater Bay Area integration to support Macau’s goal of becoming a World Centre of Tourism and Leisure.
For the first nine months of 2025 Macau’s casino GGR was MOP181.3 billion ($22.5bn), up 7.1% year-on-year but still 17.7% below the same period in 2019.
Key Points
- Arrivals: 34.9 million in 2024 (88.6% of 2019); forecast 38.95 million in 2025; 39.5–46.4 million by 2030.
- Overnight stays to edge from 16.0m (2024) to 16.4m (2025) and up to 21.9m by 2030; average stay 2.3→2.5 days.
- Per-visitor non-gaming spend forecast MOP2,194 ($272) in 2025, rising to MOP3,229 ($402) by 2030; non-gaming receipts >MOP110bn by 2030.
- Hotel rooms increasing from 48,333 (2024) to >49,000 (2025) and possibly >52,000 (2030); occupancy could peak at 92.8% in 2025.
- Major vulnerability: >93% of visitors still from Greater China; MGTO targets 3 million overseas visitors in 2025 to diversify markets.
- “Tourism+” strategy emphasises gastronomy, culture, wellness, sports and education; sustainability and AI-driven travel tools highlighted.
- Risks include high China dependence and growing regional competition from Japan and Southeast Asian integrated resorts.
- Casino GGR (Jan–Sep 2025): MOP181.3bn, +7.1% YoY but -17.7% vs Jan–Sep 2019.
Context and relevance
This MGTO review is key for operators, investors and policy makers: it maps the recovery trajectory from pandemic lows back to near-2019 volumes and sets out how Macau plans to shift the mix away from pure gaming. The numbers matter for hotel chains, resort operators, retail and F&B businesses, plus regional tourism planners assessing competition and market share in Asia.
Why should I read this?
Short version — Macau’s tourism bounce isn’t just back to life, it’s aiming higher. If you work in gaming, hospitality or regional tourism strategy, this piece saves you time: it pulls the forecasts, risks and policy pivots into one place so you can spot revenue upside and where to hedge your bets.
Author style
Punchy: Nelson Moura cuts through the figures fast — this is must-see intel for industry insiders. The forecasts and strategy notes signal where investment and product shifts will land over the next five years.
