New York Targets Prediction Markets with New Bill

Summary

New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has introduced Assembly Bill 9251, known as the Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events Act (ORACLE). The proposal aims to bring event-based prediction markets under tighter regulation by treating certain contracts like traditional betting products. The move targets platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket amid concerns they operate in a legal grey area and have seen major growth, including heavy wagering during recent political events.

Key Points

Assembly Bill 9251 (ORACLE) would restrict prediction markets in New York and apply many traditional betting rules to them.
The bill would ban markets tied to catastrophic events, politics, deaths, securities and single athletic games; tournament-wide sports markets could remain allowed.
Consumer protections are included: minimum age 21, self-exclusion tools and visible HOPE NY hotline information for users.
Platforms must disclose how outcomes are determined and must not rely on private or undisclosed data to settle markets.
Advertising limits would ban targeting under-21s, forbid use of terms like “risk-free”, and restrict push notifications pitching unrelated offers.
Payment rules would disallow credit card deposits and gift cards for prediction-market wagering.
The bill responds to rapid growth in prediction markets and regulatory concerns after large sums were wagered on political events; Massachusetts has already taken legal action against Kalshi.
Timing: New York’s 2025 legislative session has ended, so the bill can be considered when the legislature reconvenes on 7 January 2026.

Context and relevance

Prediction markets have expanded quickly and increasingly resemble conventional betting in function and scale. Regulators and incumbent gambling operators argue many platforms exploit unclear state rules. New York’s ORACLE Act is part of a broader trend of states reining in or clarifying the legal status of these products — Massachusetts has sued a major operator, and other states are watching closely.

For operators, platform developers and compliance teams, the bill signals growing state-level scrutiny. If passed, it could reshuffle market access, advertising strategies and product design for prediction platforms operating in or offering services to New Yorkers.

Author’s take

Punchy and to the point: this isn’t just a paperwork tweak. ORACLE aims to close loopholes and bring prediction markets into the same regulatory orbit as sportsbook-style betting. If you work in product, legal or compliance in this space, you need to read the bill and start mapping out what changes would be required — soon.

Why should I read this?

Short answer: because it could change who can offer what in the US prediction-market space. If you care about regulation, product limits, advertising rules or payment methods for event-based markets, this is relevant. It’s not bedtime reading — but it is the kind of policy shift that affects product roadmaps and compliance checklists, so worth a quick skim.

Source

Source: https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/new-york-targets-prediction-markets-with-new-bill/