Tanker Weekly Market Monitor: Dirty Oil Flows to China
Summary
August saw a marked shift in dirty crude flows: Saudi shipments to China rose 19% year‑on‑year to above 50 million barrels — the highest monthly total so far in 2025 and the best since early 2024. That rise reflects Saudi pricing moves to win back Asian market share.
At the same time, Russian volumes into China have cooled. August imports were around 40 million barrels, similar to August 2024 but well below the early‑2024 peaks. Discounted Urals remain attractive, but geopolitical uncertainty and changing Indian intake mean growth has slowed and China appears to be favouring more Saudi barrels.
The market reaction shows in freight: VLCC rates on the MEG–China route firmed (above WS70), Suezmax is mixed, and Aframax in the Med has softened. Clean product segments show different dynamics, with MR clean sentiment improving as vessel counts decline.
Key Points
- Saudi crude exports to China jumped ~19% in August to over 50m barrels — the strongest monthly flow in 2025 so far.
- Russian exports to China have decelerated year‑to‑date; August volumes (~40m barrels) match last year but are below early‑2024 highs.
- VLCC freight (MEG–China) firmed sharply in early September, rising above WS70 (+14.5% week on week).
- Suezmax rates remain mixed: Black Sea–Med steady at WS140; West Africa–UKC climbed above WS110.
- Aframax rates in the Mediterranean and NSea/UKC have softened (monthly declines reported).
- VLCC supply from Ras Tanura has fallen since July, tightening sentiment; OPEC+ production moves may alter flows from October.
- Dirty tonne‑days are slowing after the summer; clean tonne‑days have strengthened and remain above the previous two years.
Context and relevance
This piece matters if you track tanker markets, crude trade patterns or energy geopolitics. Saudi Arabia’s push to regain Asian market share (through pricing) is reshaping cargo flows, which affects freight rates, vessel demand and regional refiners’ feedstock choices. The interplay between discounted Russian barrels and Saudi pricing — plus external pressure (tariffs, India’s intake) — is creating a new balance of flows that could influence freight market direction into Q4.
Author style
Punchy — the report is concise and market‑focused. If you need to understand short‑term supply/demand shifts and how they ripple through freight, read the sections on freight, supply and tonne‑days closely.
Why should I read this?
Quick and to the point: if you care about who’s supplying China, how that shifts freight rates, or what might move tanker demand into Q4 — this saves you time. It explains why Saudi flows matter now, how Russian barrels are behaving, and what that means for vessel utilisation and rates.
Source
Source: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tanker-weekly-market-monitor-dirty-oil-flows-to-china/
