UK tax changes projected to reduce Flutter EBITDA in 2026–27
Summary
Flutter Entertainment — the group behind FanDuel, Paddy Power and Betfair — says planned UK tax hikes on digital wagering will hit its adjusted EBITDA by roughly $320m in fiscal 2026 and about $540m in 2027, before any mitigation. The government will raise the remote gaming duty to 40% from April 2026 (up from 21%), and increase duty on online sports betting (excluding horse racing) to 25% from April 2027 (up from 15%).
Flutter plans to offset some of the impact through reduced marketing, promotions and operational spend, expecting first-order measures to recoup about 20% of the gross hit in the first six months and around 40% thereafter, with potential further benefits from efficiency gains and market-share shifts.
Key Points
- UK remote gaming duty (RGD) will rise to 40% from April 2026, up from 21%.
- Online sports betting duty (excluding horse racing) will move to 25% from April 2027, up from 15%.
- Flutter forecasts ~US$320m EBITDA reduction in fiscal 2026 and ~US$540m in 2027 before mitigation.
- First-order mitigation (cuts to promotions, marketing and operations) may offset ~20% of the impact initially, rising to ~40% later.
- Flutter warns higher taxed regulated markets risk pushing customers to unlicensed operators that don’t pay tax or invest in safer gambling.
- Other operators (Evoke/William Hill, Rank Group) also expect earnings hits and are reviewing mitigation options.
- Land-based betting and horse racing taxation are unchanged under the new measures, creating different treatment of online vs retail activity.
Context and Relevance
This is a major fiscal shift for the UK gambling sector that directly affects the largest operators and will ripple through industry investment, marketing spend and customer pricing. The changes reflect government attempts to address harm but also risk boosting the appeal of illegal, unregulated operators if licensed firms scale back promotions or raise prices. For investors, operators and regulators, the measures reshape revenue models and competitive dynamics across online and retail channels.
Why should I read this?
Short version: this will change how big betting firms operate in the UK and could push customers to the black market. If you follow iGaming, regulation, or are tracking major operators’ earnings, it’s worth knowing the scale, timing and likely company responses — we’ve done the skimming so you don’t have to.
